CHARACTERIZING THE MODELING STRATEGIES OF SOLAR FLARE DURATION FOR PAKISTAN ATMOSPHERIC REGION

S. A. Jilani, M. A. K. Yousaf Zai

Abstract


This paper presents the significance of solar flare according to their duration. The characterization in the variability of flares has been developed using modeling techniques. It is desirable to develop such models which predict at least a day or so ahead, when solar flare influence on terrestrial system may be expected. For that purpose, future aspects of these flares are investigated by stochastic analysis. After doing residual analysis a proper ARIMA model is developed to forecast the Solar Flare Duration (SFD). These investigations are the part of work connecting solar flare activity with ozone layer depletion which is one of the solar-terrestrial relationships.

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